DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280855
SWOD48
SPC AC 280854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE
NWRN STATES SUNDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE
MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS NWWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NE MT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH MOVE THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON MONDAY/DAY 5.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DAKOTAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ON
TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF MOVES THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. BEYOND DAY 6...THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...A SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES EWD THROUGH
THE NCNTRL STATES. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW CONCERNING
THE EXACT AREAS WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BECOME ENHANCED.

..BROYLES.. 06/28/2012

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