MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1002

ACUS11 KWNS 011525
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011525
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-011700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011525Z - 011700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS SHEARING NEWD
AT ROUGHLY 25KT ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA. IT APPEARS DIURNAL
HEATING IS NOW CONTRIBUTING GREATLY TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF DEBRIS CANOPY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.
GIVEN THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE EXPECTED GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO
THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL. CURRENT SPEED OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF
FORCING WITH MCV WILL PROGRESS INTO SERN GA BY 21Z.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31678485 32778194 31908075 30658121 29428344 30008518
31678485

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