MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1006

ACUS11 KWNS 011854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011853
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS...PARTS OF WRN OK...FAR SWRN KS...FAR SERN CO...NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011853Z - 012030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 1930Z AND 2100Z...WITH SVR HAIL/WIND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH BY
2000Z.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT...MODERATE MID/HIGH-LEVEL
NWLY FLOW REGIME...A SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS EXTENDING N-S ALONG
THE CO/KS BORDER ARCS SWWD TOWARD THE CO/NM BORDER SE OF TRINIDAD
CO...WHILE A FRONT LIES FARTHER EAST FROM NWRN KS TO W-CNTRL OK
ARCING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL OK. BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE FRONT IS
BEING MAINTAINED BY DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING OWING TO
PERSISTENT WAA-INDUCED CLOUDS/ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH AXIS AND ITS INTERSECTION NEAR A SUB-SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW OVER
FAR SERN CO IS SUPPORTING A NARROW SEGMENT OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ECHOES OVER PARTS OF BACA COUNTY IN SERN CO INTO
CIMARRON COUNTY IN THE OK PANHANDLE AMIDST NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC
0-3-KM LAPSE RATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS
ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
AND INVOF A SFC THETA-E AXIS EXTENDING SWD/SSWWD FROM THE SFC LOW.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN NEAR THE SFC TROUGH/LOW AND IN RESPONSE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
OVER N-CNTRL NM AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES TO ERODE ANTECEDENT CINH.
AS STORMS MOVE SELY/SSELY INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING
SBCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG /LOCALLY HIGHER/...THE SVR POTENTIAL
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OWING TO THE LACK OF LARGE/SCALE ASCENT AND
ENSUING CINH REDUCTION INHIBITING STORM COVERAGE. SVR HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NERN NM WHICH WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT AND WITHIN THE
REGION OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND THE 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER WEST INTO NERN NM.
ELSEWHERE...STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAIN.

STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IF COLD POOLS MERGE...IN WHICH CASE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WOULD ENSUE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 30F. THESE SPREADS WILL
GREATLY MITIGATE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS CONVECTION BECOMES
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT. HOWEVER...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVATURE IN LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS COMBINED WITH BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE
FRONT...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36520478 36830382 37160256 37570191 37750108 37180041
36209990 35489949 34719936 34229975 33970051 33880233
34420398 35470483 36520478

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