MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1028

ACUS11 KWNS 031812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031811
ALZ000-MSZ000-031915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031811Z - 031915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CHANCES ARE INCREASING THAT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NRN MS INTO PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL AL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONTAL
ZONE DRAPED OVER NRN MS/AL. LIFT ALONG/ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS AIDED
BY A 20-30KT WLY LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST 30KT NWLY FLOW AT MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS MS BUT LESS SO TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...OVER NRN AL. HOWEVER...LATEST SATL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
STRONG HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AL IN ADVANCE OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND MOVE INTO AL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

..CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33128733 33358842 33888891 34328894 34828877 34928794
34628617 34198549 33308564 32908624 33128733

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