MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1029

ACUS11 KWNS 031904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031903
COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CO...NRN NM...SERN WY...A SMALL PART OF
THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031903Z - 032130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A MARGINALLY SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SFC WIND OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN CO AND NM HAVE RECENTLY BECOME DECIDEDLY
ESELY/SELY...INDICATIVE OF THE UPSLOPE BRANCHES OF
OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
TO DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING. TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE/RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...STEEPENING
OF LAPSE RATES...AND INTENSIFICATION OF OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN/MODESTLY
STRENGTHEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 200-600 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES -- E.G. 8.8 C/KM WITHIN THE 700-500 MB LAYER PER
DENVER/BOULDER CO 12Z RAOB -- ATOP VERY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ALSO...THE AREA IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE ZONE OF STRONGER
WLYS/DEEP SHEAR...WHICH WILL MITIGATE STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.
REGARDLESS...ISOLATED PULSE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE A MARGINALLY SVR STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE ABSENCE OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/GREATER BUOYANCY AND STRONGER SHEAR.

AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE
SUBSTANTIALLY OUT OVER THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OWING TO THE
MERIDIONAL -- I.E. FRONT-RANGE-PARALLEL -- COMPONENT OF THE
CLOUD-LAYER FLOW. AN EXCEPTION WILL EXIST ACROSS SERN WY AND THE WRN
NEB PANHANDLE WHERE THE ZONAL -- I.E. FRONT-RANGE-ORTHOGONAL --
COMPONENT OF THE CLOUD-LAYER FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONGER
COMPARED TO THAT ELSEWHERE. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN NUMBER/INTENSITY
AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION COMMENCES THIS EVENING.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW...GJT...

LAT...LON 40520689 42370737 42940600 42940488 42690404 42150351
41380352 39870353 37870343 36760342 35860368 35530412
35420490 35720588 36640652 38610679 40520689

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