MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1030

ACUS11 KWNS 031927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031927
ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031927Z - 032130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AREAS FROM EXTREME NERN OK ACROSS NRN AR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IN THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS
ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF AT LEAST 3000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A WARM FRONT APPROXIMATELY SITUATED FROM MKO TO FVY TO S OF MEM. THE
WARM FRONT HAS BEEN LOCALLY REINFORCED ACROSS NRN AR BY DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG SRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
MCS OVER SRN MO. DESPITE PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS THE FRONTAL
ZONE...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LARGER SCALE/DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
BRUSHING THIS AREA FROM THE MCV ACROSS MO...MID LEVEL WARMING NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. MIXED SIGNALS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.

IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN TAKE HOLD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MAGNITUDE
OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH WITH SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN DOWNBURST WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREATS. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT MAY BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM STRONGER INSTABILITY BUT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIMES...IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...STORM SCALE ENVIRONMENT COULD EVOLVE TO
SUPPORT STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ANY STORMS/CELLS THAT CAN TRACK
PREFERENTIALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD DEVELOP STRONGER
ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN EVOLVING TORNADO THREAT
WITH TIME.

..CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 34509104 35019241 35149364 35739542 36069516 36399402
36419217 36369164 36049094 35699051 35269039 34739051
34509104

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