MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1031

ACUS11 KWNS 031942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031942
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MT...NRN WY...FAR ERN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031942Z - 032145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MARGINALLY SVR STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
INDICATES A GENERALLY FLAT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING THUS FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...CONTINUED INSOLATION/DIABATIC
HEATING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD AID IN THE REMOVAL OF
ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUCH THAT OROGRAPHIC ASCENT COULD
AID IN THE GENERATION OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 2030Z AND 2200Z. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SW MT SWD INTO WRN WY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
FAR ERN ID INCLUDING THE TETON AND WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS. ONCE STORMS
FORM...THEY WILL BE STEERED EWD/ESEWD BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED
MID/UPPER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE POLAR JET. STORMS MAY SHIFT
EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SRN MT AND NRN WY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

DESPITE THE ANTICIPATION OF ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE PRESENCE
OF 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING PERHAPS ONE OR TWO WEAK
SUPERCELLS. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A GREATER SVR
THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE ABSENCE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/GREATER BUOYANCY. THE OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND
THE LACK OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

LAT...LON 44810556 43730501 43220539 42820678 42610822 42840977
43741094 44311120 44471164 44701213 44961229 45531210
46261125 46690961 46520799 46150692 44810556

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