MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1032

ACUS11 KWNS 032026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032025
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032025Z - 032200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL PARCELS NOW APPROACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM LIPSCOMB TO DONLEY COUNTIES IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MATURATION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE COMPLEXES ACROSS
WRN/NRN OK LATER THIS EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING INTO THIS REGION AND
EXPECTED DIURNAL INCREASE IN LLJ THAT SHOULD FOCUS INTO CNTRL OK
AFTER DARK. INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED WITH
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF
SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS OK IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35260112 37320036 37149926 34989994 34670075 35260112

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