ACUS11 KWNS 041344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041343
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AL/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND FAR NORTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041343Z - 041545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA AS AN MCS/ASSOCIATED
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AT
AROUND 35-40 KT. DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/SURFACE COLD
POOL EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AL AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST GA AS OF 1330Z. UPDRAFT INTENSITY
ALONG THE OUTFLOW/EDGE OF THE MCS HAS REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY STATE
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...BUT INCREASINGLY INTENSE SURFACE BASED
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F
IN THE AFTERNOON AMID AMPLE INSOLATION PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALBEIT LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
BIRMINGHAM/ATLANTA/TALLAHASSEE ARE INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND/ABOVE 4 KM...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR MODE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
..GUYER/CARBIN.. 06/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 32768652 33038522 33398442 32568168 31858118 30278222
31838646 32768652
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