MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1050

ACUS11 KWNS 041808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041807
ARZ000-042000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041807Z - 042000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RECENT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SALINE COUNTY AR SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER A FOCUSED
AREA OF CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT A WATCH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT AND TIME
OF DAY.

DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MCV ACROSS THE OZARKS
HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOWED FOR STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AR. FOCUSED LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE MCV HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEST OF LIT. VWP AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST
THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING NEAR/WITHIN A BAND OF 40-50KT
MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCV. RESULTANT AMBIENT
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH A CHANCE FOR
HAIL. IF STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS REMAINING WEAK INHIBITION IS
OVERCOME BY ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF SURFACE HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34239321 34559323 34749327 35039315 35449295 35749261
35739250 35689167 35329121 34559094 33669128 33429168
33379207 33459280 33769299 34239321

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