MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1069

ACUS11 KWNS 051543
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051542
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-051745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AL/FAR NORTH FL AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA
TO FAR SOUTHERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051542Z - 051745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GA TO FAR SOUTHERN SC. A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY
17Z-18Z.

DISCUSSION...AMID RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...DUAL WEAKENING MCV/S EXIST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND ANOTHER OVER NORTH GA PER
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THESE MCV/S...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A
SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS GA/SC...TSTMS ARE LIKELY
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A
PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM
THROUGH THE 80S F...MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE TO 1500-3000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/FAR NORTH FL. AS STORMS
INCREASE/MATURE...MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL
FLOW...ESPECIALLY COLLOCATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
ZONE...WILL SUPPORT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONT...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 33298441 33158314 32828167 32098082 30998143 31038258
30508459 30818615 31568551 33108530 33298441

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