MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1083

ACUS11 KWNS 061350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061349
TXZ000-061545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061349Z - 061545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
PLAINVIEW/LUBBOCK AREAS AND SURROUNDING I-27 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL/ISOLATED SUCH THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.
POTENTIALLY OF MORE CONCERN...HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL...WITH RATES
LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR...WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...ON THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF A
NEARLY-STALLED/SLOW-MOVING PERSISTENT MCV OVER NORTHWEST TX/TX
PANHANDLE...STRONG TO SEVERE CALIBER UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP/TRAIN WITHIN A NNW-SSE ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIKELY PRESENCE
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODEST CAPE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
COMPLEX IS SUPPORTING STOUT WESTERN-FLANK UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A
TRANSIENT ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO AS PER WEST OF THE PLAINVIEW
AREA AS OF 1330Z. SUCH A SCENARIO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AT LEAST ON A SHORT-TERM/ISOLATED BASIS. LOCALLY
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL ACROSS THE I-27
CORRIDOR INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH/EAST OF LUBBOCK. THAT
SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN SUCH THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD ABATE BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY.

..GUYER/WEISS.. 06/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 34920218 34450170 32860106 33220185 34920218

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