MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1084

ACUS11 KWNS 061746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061745
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-062015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...FAR SRN GA...FAR SERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061745Z - 062015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER DISORGANIZED...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONT EXTENDING E-W
ACROSS SRN GA/AL/MS...WITH A WEAK MESOLOW OVER S-CNTRL AL. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...AREAS OF STRONG INSOLATION CONTINUE AMIDST A MOIST AIR
MASS FEATURING PW VALUES OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES PER GPS DATA AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN IN THIS AREA...MLCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1500-2500 J/KG /PER MODIFIED 12Z TALLAHASSEE RAOB/. AS
SUCH...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON OWING TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND ASCENT INVOF
/1/ THE FRONTS AND MESOLOW.../2/ A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...AND /3/ OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN FL ASSOCIATED WITH
ONGOING CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE DISORGANIZED WITH WEAK
DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE -- I.E. 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 20 KT PER
TALLAHASSEE VWP DATA -- SUPPORTING A PULSE TO OCCASIONALLY
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...AS DCAPE
VALUES INCREASE /MAINLY OVER WRN AREAS/ WHILE A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR CROSSES THE AREA WITHIN THE BASE OF AN ERN CONUS TROUGH.
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR...WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND
LIMITED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 29818119 29338240 29368323 29618405 29558526 30118625
30358705 30778726 31078686 31178562 31178427 31248238
31338102 29818119

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