MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1085

ACUS11 KWNS 061841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061840
TXZ000-OKZ000-062045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...N-CNTRL
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061840Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BRIEF/MARGINAL SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A LOW/MCV IS LOCATED NNE OF CHILDRESS TX
PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHILE A DIFFUSE SFC
FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK AND FARTHER
ESE INTO NERN TX. ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
/1/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF THE DENSER ZONE OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE MCV.../2/ THE
FRONT/TROUGH...AND /3/ CONVERGENT BANDS AROUND THE SFC REFLECTION OF
THE MCV WILL REMAIN THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AMIDST THE MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...VWP DATA FROM TWIN LAKES/FREDERICK RADARS
SUGGEST SOME MODESTLY ENHANCED 2-4-KM-AGL FLOW OVER THE ERN FRINGES
OF THE MCV -- I.E. SSWLY TO SLY AT 20-25 KT -- WHICH MAY PROMOTE
STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS. THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT PROCESSES IN DOWNDRAFTS...AUGMENTED BY WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES OWING TO PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
PER GPS DATA. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SVR WIND THREAT MAY
EXIST...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE AREAS OF
INSOLATION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/STRONGER DCAPE. IF A LARGE NUMBER OF STORM MERGERS OCCUR WITH
LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH...STORM CLUSTERS COULD PROPAGATE ESEWD/SEWD
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE GIVEN MODEST ESELY/SELY INFLOW BELOW 0.5 KM
AGL. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...WITH PW VALUES BEING 125-150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STORMS.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 33419866 34339914 34980026 36190056 36619979 36139821
34789671 32969592 32119651 31809720 31839825 32549880
33419866

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