MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1086

ACUS11 KWNS 061855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061854
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY...NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061854Z - 062100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CO FRONT
RANGE NWD INTO SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE BETWEEN 20Z-22Z AND MOVE EAST
INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY POSING A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH-CENTRAL CO AND ALSO ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NE CO/SE
WY. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE NWD INTO SE WY AND NEB PANHANDLE
WITH STORMS MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME TO AROUND 35-40 KTS BY LATE AFTN. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...ORGANIZED MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS INTERACT
WITH LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES.

A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 06/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41200550 42250506 43070392 42880274 41940242 40860270
39760320 39400358 39060481 39400573 39770582 40380561
41200550

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