MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1087

ACUS11 KWNS 061936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061936
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN AL...FAR SRN MS...SRN LA...A SMALL PART OF
SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061936Z - 062130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH
OF A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL TX EWD INTO
SWRN AL AND INVOF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG PER MODIFIED LAKE CHARLES/SLIDELL 12Z RAOBS. LIGHT
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE PER AREA VWP DATA WILL
SUPPORT A PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING
TO DIURNAL HEATING ARE SUPPORTING DCAPE VALUES OF IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH COULD YIELD A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES GIVEN PW VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES PER GPS DATA WOULD
ALSO SUPPORT THIS THREAT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED...WITH ANY MARGINAL
SVR THREAT VERY ISOLATED.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30628788 30088799 29558843 28918928 28969079 29339172
29599285 29769348 29889421 30469444 31059362 30739064
30868851 30628788

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