MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1093

ACUS11 KWNS 071837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071836
NDZ000-072030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/CNTRL/S-CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071836Z - 072030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL/S-CNTRL ND. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING N-S OVER THE WRN HALF OF ND. ALONG THIS FRONT LIES A SFC
LOW SW OF BISMARCK...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE LOW.
LOW-LEVEL MASS FLUX INTO WRN ND ON THE NOSE OF A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET CONTINUES SUPPORTING SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WEST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS INFLOW INTO THIS ACTIVITY DESTABILIZES. EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...INSOLATION/DIBABATIC HEATING ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE WARM FRONT MAY AID IN ITS NWD MOTION WITH MLCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AS SFC DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S.
THIS MAY SUPPORT SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EVOLVING FROM THE
WNW-ESE-ORIENTED ARC OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE LOW. HOWEVER...IT MAY TAKE AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS FOR STRONG ANTECEDENT SFC-BASED INHIBITION TO ERODE PER A
MODIFIED 12Z BISMARCK SOUNDING...WITH AROUND 100 J/KG OF SBCINH
REMAINING AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.

A ZONE OF ENHANCED SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A
WRN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH 25-35 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...THOUGH A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARIES/LOW.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48970061 48699974 47669852 46599817 46219862 46089924
46010052 46120158 46610250 47400294 48360296 48910234
48970061

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