MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1094

ACUS11 KWNS 072000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071959
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-072130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE/SWRN SOUTH DAKOTA...NERN COLORADO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362...

VALID 071959Z - 072130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 362 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT TRENDS NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WW 362 WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF MID-LEVEL FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT THE GREAT BASIN...IS IN THE PROCESS
OF SHIFTING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FOCUSED TO THE LEE OF THE FRONT
RANGE...WHERE SOUTHERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY
HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM
WITH INSOLATION. SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 22-00Z...WHILE SLOWLY PROPAGATING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 06/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39470484 39760524 40520520 41150548 41750565 42460572
42790544 42930461 42830392 41760376 40280349 39730382
39470484

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