MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1098

ACUS11 KWNS 081726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081725
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-081900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081725Z - 081900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN
RESPONSE TO HEATING TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...AIDED BY
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF
A DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK...FROM PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC INTO PARTS OF THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. IN ADDITION TO RATHER WEAK CAPE...DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
MEAN FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE STILL QUITE MODEST ACROSS MOST
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SO...WHILE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
SOME STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM...SEEMS
RATHER LIMITED. TOWARD 20-22Z...AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION...STRENGTHENING MEAN FLOW FIELDS COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR TO WHAT EXTENT PRECEDING CONVECTIVE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ON THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY
THAT TIME. POCKETS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LINGER...BUT
STRONG/SEVERE STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE AND MARGINAL
IN NATURE.

..KERR/MEAD.. 06/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON 47716897 46446907 45756980 45057059 44447125 44117226
43597311 43357376 43637492 44047569 44397618 47716897

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