ACUS11 KWNS 111431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111431
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-111530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111431Z - 111530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FROM PARTS OF SRN MO INTO NRN AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIFT
ALONG MATURE MCS COLD POOL SPREADS SOUTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THESE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WERE
OCCURRING WITHIN SWRN FLANK OF MATURE MCS ACROSS SWRN MO THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXISTS AMIDST WELL-DEFINED DIFFLUENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE LOW LEVEL ASCENT
IS LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF A
25-30KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH SGF AND LZK MORNING SOUNDINGS
DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE
80SF. AND..IT IS LIKELY THAT LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING MCS COLD POOL
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN MO...AND CAPPING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND
WRN AR DOES INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM PERSISTENCE INTO
THESE AREAS...LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH
ACROSS THE REGION.
..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35919053 35469214 35279325 36139469 37199487 37469312
37779210 38049177 38469115 38469063 37939013 37258961
36388978 35919053
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