MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1120

ACUS11 KWNS 111624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111623
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-111800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111623Z - 111800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN IL ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/COLD
POOL MOVING INTO SWRN IL HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
REFLECTIVELY...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING WITHIN/BENEATH DIFFLUENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WELL REMOVED FROM OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE CURRENT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG. WEAK INHIBITION OVER SRN IL SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

MORE WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY
IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT-TERM GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND WEAK/AMBIGUOUS LARGER SCALE FORCING. LACK OF
THESE INGREDIENTS MAY ALSO BE WHY MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...A WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED IF LATEST TRENDS WITH THE LINEAR CONVECTION CONTINUE INTO SRN
IL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38018990 39228877 39168848 38088818 37638805 37108780
36758827 36718911 38018990

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