MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1172

ACUS11 KWNS 151855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151854
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN NEB AND ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151854Z - 152030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND POSE AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS OF SERN WY...ERN CO AND WRN NEB. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE
ADVECTED ABOVE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 80S WILL PROMOTE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS AND
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS. STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD AND INTERCEPT WRN
EDGE OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE
RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. ACTIVITY IS FORMING WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. HIGH BASED MULTICELLS
SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE...AND SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS INDIVIDUAL COLD POOLS
BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE. DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 38780436 41030442 42560422 42950335 42360246 40090211
37410244 37390388 38780436

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.