MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1173

ACUS11 KWNS 151911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151911
FLZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151911Z - 152015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE ACROSS SRN FL.
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN FL. WWD/SWWD PROGRESSING CONFLUENCE
BAND /LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM VDF SEWD TO BCT/ WILL LIKELY
INTERSECT THE W COAST SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 18Z MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTED MLCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN FL. THIS SUGGESTS BRIEFLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON 25288077 25648128 26158171 26908226 27498248 27718225
27748182 27608157 27028087 26458003 25488037 25288077

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.