MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1174

ACUS11 KWNS 151938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151937
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-152130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO THROUGH SRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151937Z - 152130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NWRN MO MAY POSE A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NWD INTO SRN IA. OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW AT THIS TIME...BUT A
SMALL AREA IN SRN IA MIGHT BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ON THE 20Z
UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS HAVE
INCREASED OVER NWRN MO ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXES ASSOCIATED
WITH A COMPACT NEWD MOVING VORT MAX. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SFC LOW IN EXTREME SERN NEB EWD INTO SRN IA.
DESPITE TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG WITH LOW
60S DEWPOINTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG DUE TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY WEAK UPDRAFTS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LACK OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING SO FAR. SOUTH OF WARM
FRONT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER...ELY NEAR SFC WINDS VEERING
WITH HEIGHT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR OVER SRN IA...AND A MODEST THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO MAY EXIST AS STORMS LIFT NWD AND INTERACT WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED PRIMARILY BY A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/15/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 41189240 40139304 39339374 39479483 41229533 41879296
41189240

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