ACUS11 KWNS 161743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161742
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-161845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA...NERN MO INTO NRN/WRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 161742Z - 161845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NERN MO THROUGH SERN IA
AND WRN/NRN IL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED SOON.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG A
SW-NE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE TROUGH FROM SERN IA INTO NRN IL. A
DECAYING OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVE WAS ALSO INDICATED MOVING THROUGH ERN
AND NERN MO. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THESE
BOUNDARIES SOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS WITH
MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH 6.5-7 C/KM
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
..DIAL/HART.. 06/16/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40589246 41549125 42348967 41618914 40868963 39249094
39989183 40589246
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