MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1197

ACUS11 KWNS 171904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171904
TXZ000-OKZ000-172000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TX...NW TX...FAR SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171904Z - 172000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL TX AND NW TX. ADDITIONALLY DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THESE STORMS IS LOW AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE /WHICH MAYBE A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS TSTMS/ HAS ACTED AS AN IMPETUS FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS W-CNTRL TX AND NW
TX. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOB 20 KTS/ SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG/ A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NE NM AND SE CO/ MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY AS WELL AS
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCREASED SIGNS OF STORM ORGANIZATION.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33389970 34879943 34879869 34569786 34219759 33669738
32399704 31109750 31299928 31749992 32819992 33389970

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