MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1199

ACUS11 KWNS 172235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172234
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-180000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND E-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172234Z - 180000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED...AND A WW WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AT 2230Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED
CUMULUS GROWTH /WHICH HAS YIELDED AN ISOLATED STORM 25 SSW OF IRK/
OCCURRING FROM ROUGHLY THE STJ/MKC VICINITY EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND
THEN SEWD TOWARD STL. THE AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD RESIDES INVOF A NWD
RETREATING WARM FROM FRONT...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90F AND
DEWPOINTS ARE CLOSE TO 70F. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS AIDING
IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE. PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO
W-NWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...COMBINED WITH LARGE CAPE...SUGGESTS
ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...THUS A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40639309 39419067 38789005 38289018 38499177 39309328
39389454 40299493 40639309

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