MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1207

ACUS11 KWNS 181738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181738
OHZ000-MIZ000-181845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181738Z - 181845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE ACROSS SERN MI WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AS IT MOVES THROUGH N-CNTRL OH
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTHENING.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING SE ACROSS SERN MI WILL MOVE INTO A
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS N-CNTRL OH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR
N-CNTRL OH SEPARATING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINT IN THE UPPER 60S FROM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT TO ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AID IN STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. ONE CONDITION
NOT FAVORING A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT IS THAT THE CURRENT LINE OF
TSTMS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISLOCATED FROM THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW /WHICH REMAINS TO THE NW ACROSS MI/...REDUCING THE OVERALL
SEVERE WIND THREAT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTHENING.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 42298366 42148241 41448108 40638089 40188193 40448322
41078413 42298366

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