MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1223

ACUS11 KWNS 192154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192154
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-192330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N-CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 192154Z - 192330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/N-CNTRL NEB. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AT 2130Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD OUT OF ERN SD AND
ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO WRN NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
IS AIDING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS
DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT
IS RESULTING IN DEEPENING CUMULUS...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO. LATER IN
THE NIGHT...STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FURTHER ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IN THE
MEANT TIME...LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES FROM 90-100F...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...AND
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. THOUGH STRONGEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RESIDES OVER THE
COOL SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW SVR STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 42189786 40929881 40309978 40090070 40260161 41240221
42120192 42480062 42949969 42889822 42189786

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