MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1233

ACUS11 KWNS 201836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201836
NDZ000-201930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201836Z - 201930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE
VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER ND. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF/WEAK FUNNELS. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW AND PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ND...IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES 0-3 KM LAPSE NEAR 8 C/KM...0-3 KM MLCAPE FROM 50 TO 175
J/KG...AND A MAXIMUM OF SURFACE VORTICITY /PARTICULARLY FROM N-CNTRL
ND SEWD INTO SE ND/ OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THESE
FUNNELS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW
AND LIMITS THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 06/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48930022 48249928 46389888 46190111 48590228 48930022

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