MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1234

ACUS11 KWNS 201910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201910
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-202045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN UPPER MI/NRN AND WRN WI/SERN MN/NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201910Z - 202045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SLOWLY INCREASING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL --
MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SLOWS A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEAR THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT -- WHICH NOW
EXTENDS FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS SERN MN/NWRN IA AND ON SWWD
THROUGH SERN NEB. WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALLOWING CONTINUED HEATING...SLOW DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES --
WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE GENERALLY IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED -- AIDED BY A
WIND FIELD INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...SEVERE
THREAT MAY INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS/HART.. 06/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42539301 42389560 43189556 44589339 47379067 47568763
46798747 44448942 42539301

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