MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1261

ACUS11 KWNS 242036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242036
FLZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 422...

VALID 242036Z - 242230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 422 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW. TORNADO THREAT REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
IN CORRIDOR FROM TBW REGION SEWD ACROSS INTERIOR SWRN FL NEAR
BOUNDARY DESCRIBED BELOW.

OVERALL THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME IN STEP WITH
POLEWARD COMPONENT OF CYCLONE TRACK...PER NHC PATH FCST. AS
SUCH...MORE OF NWRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL FL MAY REQUIRE WW COVERAGE
LATER THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MESOSCALE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
NEAR FLL-FMY-SRQ...DRIFTING NWD. N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SFC WINDS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED...WHILE BUOYANCY DECREASES AND MLCINH
INCREASES. MLCAPE TO ITS S AVERAGES AROUND 1500 J/KG...BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...WITH SLGT DECREASE LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET DUE TO DIABATIC SFC COOLING. THAT DECREASE...HOWEVER...WILL
BE VERY GRADUAL GIVEN VERY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUSTAINED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SERN GULF/STRAITS AIR MASS. ALONG
AND WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM N OF BOUNDARY...AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY
JUXTAPOSED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL YIELD RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/ROTATING CELLS INTERACTING WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE. FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EVIDENT FARTHER NE ACROSS E-CENTRAL FL...PER MLB
VWP...BUT BOTH REFLECTIVITIES AND CELL-SCALE ROTATION HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WITH NWD EXTENT AWAY FROM FRONT. TBW VWP REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH 0-1
KM AGL SRH 250-300 J/KG FOR CELL MOTION BEARING SLIGHTLY E OF DUE
N...REPRESENTING MOST DEVIANT ROTATION TRACK VECTORS OBSERVED SO FAR
IN WDSS DATA.

REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST PATH/INTENSITY/WATCH/WARNING GUIDANCE
ON TS DEBBY.

..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 25868169 26488199 26398205 26598224 27898285 28578266
29158283 29168297 28998307 29328312 29628277 29258215
28398141 27988110 27228090 27158015 26538001 25988017
25868169

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