MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1272

ACUS11 KWNS 251913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251912
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MA/CT/SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251912Z - 252015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY LINE OF TSTMS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DISCUSSION...SECONDARY BAND OF TSTMS DEVELOPED WITHIN A NARROW WEDGE
OF INSTABILITY OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF NY. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERISTIC
OF ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL
PROGRESS STEADILY ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THAT WOULD WARRANT A
WATCH.

..DARROW/WEISS.. 06/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41247417 42627256 42487184 41177294 40807404 41247417

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