MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1274

ACUS11 KWNS 252010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252009
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-252215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...SW ND...NW SD...NE WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252009Z - 252215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL GIVEN STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE IF A SVR WW IS NEEDED BY
21-22Z. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

DISCUSSION...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SITUATION IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED
WITH ELEVATED CUMULUS/MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDINESS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING GIVEN
DAYTIME HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND AS EVIDENT BY TCU/AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BYG AND GCC. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEARLY 70...AT LEAST A
STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREACH STRONG CAP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ADEQUATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRONG INSTABILITY. LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
AGAIN...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER/HOW MANY STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE STRONG EML/CAP IN PLACE. THEREFORE
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS TO DETERMINE IF A SVR WW IS NEEDED.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 46190691 46990598 47470504 47700433 47690388 47460312
47080271 46690248 45880243 44910299 44180372 43710484
43500569 43560619 44420665 44850701 45290734 45760719
46190691

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