MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1289

ACUS11 KWNS 261903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261902
TXZ000-262100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261902Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A
HOT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NELYS...UPDRAFTS COULD COALESCE INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
WITH THREATS OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

DISCUSSION...CU HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST HOUR IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND HILL COUNTRY. PRESENCE OF
SCATTERED CIRRUS SUGGESTS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG THE WRN
GULF COAST MAY BE ENHANCING ASCENT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW
REACHING 100-105...MLCIN SHOULD BE WEAK WITH A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PER ACARS DATA INVOF AUS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT
TSTMS SHOULD FORM...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES BREEDS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE DEVELOPMENT
WILL FOCUS. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT MID-LEVEL NELYS
SAMPLED IN THE LEDBETTER TX PROFILER WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE
RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND AND SOME HAIL.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 06/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779993 30519839 31169694 31319508 30339483 29149531
27999721 27599886 27869963 28460022 29090042 29779993

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