MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1298

ACUS11 KWNS 290054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290053
PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-290230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...FAR NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290053Z - 290230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...AND FAR NWRN PA ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE
SVR THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN LOWER MI -- WITHIN A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INVOF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW
OF A TRIPLE POINT LOCATED 35 MILES SSE OF BAD AXE MI. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LEADING THE COLD
FRONT INTO SWRN ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY
INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850-700-MB SPEED MAX. WITH
GENERALLY 2000-3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN PLACE -- PROVIDED STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- AMIDST
40-50 KT OF WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PER DETROIT AND CLEVELAND VWP
DATA...ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY ENSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OWING TO NOTABLE
CINH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR -- CHARACTERIZED BY 700-MB TEMPS IN
EXCESS OF 15C -- WITH CINH REINFORCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING.

GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GIVEN THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...MORE LIKELY AFTER 03Z. SHOULD THIS THREAT APPEAR TO
INCREASE...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...

LAT...LON 42598377 43118314 43348251 43038147 42558033 42158002
41538062 41268107 41078168 41068235 41248292 41528339
41868370 42238386 42598377

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