MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1323

ACUS11 KWNS 302127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302127
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND/OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302127Z - 302300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERSISTENT UNORGANIZED TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL IL/IND MAY
INTENSIFY AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD ALONG A REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE...YIELDING SPORADIC SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

DISCUSSION...LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM CNTRL IL/IND. RECENT DEVELOPMENT TO THE S OF
THIS INVOF INDIANAPOLIS APPEARS TO BE ROOTED ALONG A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH CNTRL OH TO THE NRN WV
PANHANDLE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES S OF THE FRONT HAVE HEATED INTO THE
90S CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG PER PARALLEL RAP-RUC-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. WITH MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER WLYS YIELDING 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AN ORGANIZED
CLUSTER MAY EVOLVE EWD WITH ATTENDANT RISKS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. BUT
MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE FRONT DOES
BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER BOTH THE INTENSITY AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT.

..GRAMS/HART/THOMPSON.. 06/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON 39398667 39738757 39988764 40268756 40438710 40598560
40738407 40738275 40638194 40558155 40298127 39878126
39568131 39298152 39088188 38918342 39178559 39398667

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