WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 412

WWUS20 KWNS 192239
SEL2
SPC WW 192239
MNZ000-LSZ000-200600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN MINNESOTA
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 535
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF DETROIT LAKES MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELY
MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
NRN MN INTO THE EVENING WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A SHARP WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTRL MN WITH ORIGINS NEAR A SFC LOW IN ERN SD. LIFT ACROSS THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD INCREASE AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. AIR MASS
TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM THE VERY HOT AND CAPPED REGIME ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ACT TO FUEL ROBUST UPDRAFTS AMIDST POTENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT. ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WITH BOTH WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE MORE INTENSE
CORES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...CARBIN

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