DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 092004
SWODY1
SPC AC 092002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WEST TO NORTHEAST AL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA AND ID...

20Z OUTLOOK WILL INTRODUCE A 5 PERCENT WIND PROB ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WHERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STG WIND
GUSTS. WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG DCAPE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA...THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THIS PULSE-SVR ENVIRONMENT
WILL POSE A RISK OF SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS CELLS COLLAPSE.

SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SEA
BREEZE AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS INITIATE NEW CONVECTION.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN VA...WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW AND WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS EXISTS. A MIX OF
MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL MODES IS EXPECTED WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WEAKER VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A PULSE-TYPE SVR ENVIRONMENT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

ACROSS INLAND PAC NW...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE
OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADJUSTED 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS
SOUTHWARD OVER ID WHERE ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

ADJUSTED GENERAL THUNDER LINE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS IA/IL
BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS.

..BUNTING.. 07/09/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON JUL 09 2012/

...MID ATLC REGION SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO NRN AL...
ONGOING SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO INCLUDE NRN AL/GA.
REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
NERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST WLY MIDLVL FLOW RELEGATED
TO AREAS FROM VA/KY NWD. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
WEAKER END OF THE SCALE...INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER ROBUST.

VSB SATL SHOWS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COINCIDENT WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS/NRN AL. ALOFT...FEATURES WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...BUT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. FCST
DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...OWING TO 90S SFC TEMPS AND LWR/MID 70S
DEW POINTS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO PULSE TYPE MULTICELLS WITH WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND SOME HAIL. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS.

...ERN WA/NRN ID...
REGION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK. A MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS MOVING NWD AT ABOUT 20 KTS THROUGH ERN ORE LATE THIS MORNING AND
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ERN WA/NRN ID THIS AFTN. NUMEROUS TSTMS
ALREADY EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW STRONGER
IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 1000-2000
J/KG. ENHANCED SWLY MIDLVL FLOW WILL BOOST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
35-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AMIDST A BROAD
AREA OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- PW VALUES OF 1.80-2.15 INCHES -- AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOSTER A
PREDOMINANTLY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN DISORGANIZED.

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