DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130052
SWODY1
SPC AC 130050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN TROUGH AXIS ALONG WEAK SFC
WIND SHIFT FROM SERN MB...ACROSS NWRN MN INTO NERN SD. THIS
ACTIVITY MATURED WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
AND IS CURRENTLY BEING MAINTAINED BY AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE. FOR
THIS REASON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS WRN/NRN MN. 00Z SOUNDING FROM INL SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH AMPLE SBCAPE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES. EVEN SO IT
APPEARS DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AND ASIDE
FROM MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THIS REGION.

...AZ...

FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SURGE HAS ADVANCED INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY OF SRN CA/AZ WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL PIMA COUNTY AND
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING WEST WITH AN ATTENDANT
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

...ELSEWHERE...

VERY MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHTNING TRENDS ARE DOWN AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL LIMIT
SEVERE THREAT.

FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE THIS
EVENING. ASCENT IS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS ERN WA/NERN ORE AND
THIS MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDING FROM OTX IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS
THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 07/13/2012

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