MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1375

ACUS11 KWNS 032034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032034
MIZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032034Z - 032200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SERN LOWER MI. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
LIKELY EXIST. THE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO SHORT IN TIME AND
SPACE FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ON THE WRN SUBURBS OF
DETROIT LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OF THE CNTRL PART OF LOWER MI. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ERN
EDGE OF A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE DETROIT WSR-88D
VWP SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DETROIT SHOWS A STEEP LAPSE RATE
FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO THE MID-LEVELS WITH -14C JUST BELOW 500
MB. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE CELLS MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...THE STORMS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43198271 43138378 42358430 41728419 41748328 42438259
43198271

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