MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1389

ACUS11 KWNS 041959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041959
MIZ000-042130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041959Z - 042130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS STORMS INITIATE ACROSS
CNTRL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
CERTAINTY INCREASES CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE
LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI WHERE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S F EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF
MUSKEGON ESEWD TO NEAR FLINT. MESOANALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE AND THIS
SHOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ESEWD INTO
LOWER MI FROM THE NRN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE STORM COVERAGE ONCE STORMS INITIATE. THE LATEST WSR-88D
VWPS ACROSS LOWER MI SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 30 KT OF
FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A LINE SEGMENT CAN DEVELOP. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THE STORMS CAN EXHIBIT
ROTATION.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43818256 44538389 44538573 44058654 43578647 43218542
42968460 42568363 42538260 43048226 43818256

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