MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1390

ACUS11 KWNS 042004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042004
MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OH / SWRN PA / NRN-NERN WV / NRN VA
/ MD PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042004Z - 042100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD-SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD WIND DAMAGE/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING MCV OVER
W-CNTRL PA WITH A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A GROWING CU FIELD
OVER FAR ERN OH AND N OF PIT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MCV AND POSSIBLE SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES TIED PRIMARILY TO
RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW --FROM EARLIER STORMS THAT FORMED OVER
NWRN PA-- MAY AID IN FURTHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A
HOT/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND A MODIFIED 12Z PIT RAOB FOR 93/68
TEMP/DEWPOINT SHOWS A VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETTING WITH 3000
J/KG MLCAPE. APPRECIABLE NWLY FLOW /25-35 KTS/ IN THE 4-9KM LAYER
YIELDS AROUND 25-30 KTS 0-6 SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
MULTICELLS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A DMGG
WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK. IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN
CONGEAL AND ORGANIZE...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS...A
PERHAPS GREATER COVERAGE OF DMGG WINDS MAY RESULT.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 40328156 40988070 41097979 39287790 38767865 38577989
39798159 40328156

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