MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1391

ACUS11 KWNS 042048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042048
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-042145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY / VT / NH / SRN MAINE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042048Z - 042145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD-SCTD STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD FROM NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. A
LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN QUEBEC AND INTENSE STORMS ARISING OUT OF A CU
FIELD OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE VIGOROUS
MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND...SUPPORT FOR
STRONG-SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG HEATING HAS YIELDED TEMPS RISING INTO
THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S AND A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE PER RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS/.
STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 40 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SUPERCELL OR TWO. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
THE THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

LAT...LON 44487577 44967483 45007185 45507065 44456976 43347051
42857323 43327484 44487577

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