MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1419

ACUS11 KWNS 062109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062109
MIZ000-062245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062109Z - 062245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS UPPER MI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT MAY REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...A SHORT LINE-SEGMENT IS NOW ONGOING IN THE WRN PART OF
UPPER MI JUST NORTH OF A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE SEGMENT ARE IN THE 500 TO 750
J/KG RANGE. THE LINE APPEARS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE MARQUETTE WSR-88D VWP
CURRENTLY SHOWS 50 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 4 TO 6 KM SUGGESTING THERE
SHOULD BE SUPPORT TO KEEP THE LINE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED. IF THE LINE
CAN BECOME SFC-BASED...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE
AS THE LINE MOVES TOWARD MARQUETTE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 07/06/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON 46578637 46888884 46548924 46198892 45658658 45738587
46238560 46578637

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