MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1430

ACUS11 KWNS 071958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071957
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OH...PA...NY...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...478...

VALID 071957Z - 072200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
477...478...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CURRENTLY...STRONGEST STORMS...WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...EXIST ACROSS NRN PA IN THE WRN PORTION OF WATCH 477 AND
ERN SECTION OF WATCH 478. THIS BAND OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING SEWD AT
35-40KT AND WILL MOVE TO THEN SRN EDGE OF WATCH 477 BY EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE TSTM THREAT IS WELL CONTAINED WITHIN EXISTING
WATCH AREAS STRETCHING FROM ERN OH TO NYC AREA AND WRN CT. PRIMARY
STRONG/SEVERE SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN PA AND HAS SHOWN
SOME UPSCALE GROWTH OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY SEWD AT BETWEEN
35 AND 40 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SERN PA AND WRN/CNTRL NJ
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

FARTHER WEST...ACROSS WATCH 478...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DESPITE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY
WITHIN VERY HOT AIRMASS. THIS LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THAT
WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND DEGREE OF INHIBITION...WERE LIKELY
ACTING TO LIMIT MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED
STORMS WILL STILL POSE SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 07/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 40297311 40517724 40018017 39798180 40268275 40988267
41498077 41818056 41847960 41997954 42057744 41997532
41927487 41557339 41427266 41357185 40777166 40297311

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