MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1445

ACUS11 KWNS 092153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092153
VAZ000-NCZ000-092330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA...NWRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484...

VALID 092153Z - 092330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY
ERN PORTIONS OF WW 484.

DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY CORES WITHIN WW 484 HAVE LARGELY REMAINED
WEAKER RELATIVE TO TSTMS FARTHER E/SE IN WW 483. SEVERAL
INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPARENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR FOCUSING RENEWED UPDRAFTS.
THIS APPEARS MOST PROBABLE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW GIVEN POCKET OF
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S SURFACE TEMPERATURES OBSERVED INVOF THE I-74/77
CORRIDORS NEAR/NW OF GSO. WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER WLYS SAMPLED
IN THE FCX VWP /0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT/...ACTIVITY SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...SUGGESTING LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 07/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 37218027 37037907 36717863 36307875 35657946 36038120
36308149 36748122 36988096 37218027

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