MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1451

ACUS11 KWNS 112237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112236
NDZ000-MTZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT...NWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112236Z - 112330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND NWRN ND THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED
TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE INITIATED AMIDST NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER SRN SK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS LIMITED WITH MOST SURFACE OBS IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA DEPICTING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 35 DEG F. RUC-BASED MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY
MODEST INSTABILITY -- I.E. MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG -- AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. 12Z GGW SOUNDING MODIFIED WITH LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MLLCL
HEIGHTS ABOVE 10 KFT. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
SUGGESTS MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN ND. GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH SEVERE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 07/11/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 48440711 48820632 48990462 48950308 48070254 46890296
46920641 48440711

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