MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1466

ACUS11 KWNS 142132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142132
IAZ000-NEZ000-142300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL/SW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142132Z - 142300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 23-00Z...BUT MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT AND
ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THE PAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/W CENTRAL IA ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
SPEED MAX MOVING SWD ON THE SW FLANK OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TROUGH.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND VERY
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THUS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
PROBABLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DEEP-LAYER NLY VERTICAL SHEAR
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.
HOWEVER...PEAK STORM INTENSITY IS UNLIKELY TO EXCEED ANYTHING
OBSERVED SO FAR...AND THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

..THOMPSON.. 07/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON 41959357 41539367 41109404 40849472 40949565 41129599
41529619 41869615 41969597 42069473 42269386 41959357

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