MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1532

ACUS11 KWNS 212238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212237
TXZ000-220000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 212237Z - 220000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER E-CNTRL TX MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE WITH SWD EXTENT THIS EVENING. A SEVERE WW MAY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR SHOULD CONVECTION CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
E-CNTRL TX. WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE
AREA...THERE IS A SMALL POCKET OF 20-30 KT BULK SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF
CURRENT CONVECTION WHICH MAY HELP STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES AND DCAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. SHOULD A COLD POOL DEVELOP AS STORMS
TREND TOWARD LINEAR ORGANIZATION THE WIND THREAT WOULD CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS GENERALLY MOVE S/SWWD. THEREFORE A SEVERE WW
MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR SHOULD CONVECTIVE SIGNAL CONTINUE
AN UPWARD TREND.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 07/21/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31989461 31549400 30999397 30119479 29549529 29339616
29389681 29689777 30249796 31169738 32069676 32259623
32289529 31989461

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